Regulation

Donald Trump Win Key For XRP & Solana ETFs, Bloomberg Analyst

Published

3 months ago

October 2, 2024

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has hinted that a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election could influence the fate of XRP and Solana ETFs.

This comment follows Bitwise’s recent steps toward creating an XRP ETF by registering a trust entity in Delaware. Concurrently, it is ahead of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) deadline to appeal Judge Torres’ ruling that secondary sales of XRP on exchanges are not securities.

Donald Trump Win Key For XRP, Solana ETFs

In the recent thread on X (previously Twitter), Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that under the current regulation, led by the SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, it has become difficult to approve the new cryptocurrency ETFs, such as the one for SOL and XRP. He pointed out that Gary Gensler has taken a strict stance towards the crypto market and this has affected big players such as Binance and Coinbase.

You’ve heard of the Fed Put. This is like the Trump Call.. filings for XRP or Solana or any other alt coins are basically like a cheap call option on a Trump win as Genz will be gone and anything’s poss. Harris wins no way these get approved, and the “call” expires worthless. https://t.co/mkpCbqEuQ4
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 1, 2024

But Balchunas has pointed out that former president Donald Trump’s win could result in Gensler being replaced, paving the way for softer rules that would enable approval of ETFs for such altcoins as Solana and XRP. Balchunas compared the situation to a “Trump Call,” meaning that those who applied for XRP or Solana ETFs are more or less betting on Trump’s win, hoping that his administration would select a new chair of the SEC who might be more willing to approve such funds.

He predicts that if Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump, there will be no changes to the existing regulation and thus any possibilities for these ETFs would be lost and the “call” on these filings would be useless. However, with Kamala Harris recent shift in stance and pledge to maintain the US dominance in Blockchain and AI, some hope may linger for a potential approval of the ETFs. Moreover, Anthony Scaramucci confirmed that the Vice President is developing crypto policies which aligns with recent calls for a crypto roundtable by a group of DeFi leaders.

Bitwise Takes Steps Toward XRP ETF

Bitwise has taken a big step towards listing an XRP ETF by registering a trust entity in Delaware. This comes in the wake of other applications from other big investment firms including BlackRock and Fidelity who had earlier submitted applications for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.

Despite the recent developments, the likelihood of being approved remains uncertain. Moreover, the SEC has until October 7, 2024, to appeal Judge Torres’ July ruling, which determined that secondary sales of XRP on exchanges were not classified as securities. Despite this, many experts, including former SEC officials, expect the agency to appeal the decision, further delaying any progress on an XRP ETF hence downplaying the Donald Trump effect.

Should the SEC opt to appeal, most analysts, including Alex Thorn, of Intangible Coins, believe that the chances of the XRP ETF getting approval would be slim to zero.

Solana ETF Faces Similar Challenges

The Solana ETF, like the XRP ETF, faces a tough path ahead under the current SEC administration. Despite the demand for such investment vehicles, the SEC has been reluctant to approve additional cryptocurrency-based ETFs, even after approving spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The president of The ETF Store, Nate Geraci, has stated that under the current administration, the chances of a Solana ETF being approved within the next year or two remain slim.

In Brazil, however, two spot Solana ETFs have already been approved, further highlighting the disparity in regulatory approaches between different jurisdictions.

Similarly, Geraci also pointed out that the political environment could be the key to the approval of these ETFs, especially the result of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. If the former president Donald Trump becomes the president, it may lead to the change in the leadership of the SEC, which in its turn, may lead to more tolerant crypto regulations. On the other hand, Geraci says that if Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, there is no change in the current situation, and the approval of Solana and XRP ETFs would remain highly unlikely.