Low Odds for Donald Trump’s US Bitcoin Reserve

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz claimed that a US Bitcoin Reserve was unlikely to pass. Although he said such a law would push Bitcoin to $500,000, Novogratz believes that President Donald Trump will have insufficient Senate support.

Polymarket odds also rate the chance of passing as very low, but it only accepts bets on Trump accomplishing it very quickly after the inauguration.

The Bearish Argument for a Bitcoin Reserve

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz was pessimistic about the chances of a US Bitcoin Reserve. Although Novogratz has repeatedly spoken about his high hopes for friendly regulation, he didn’t see a clear pathway for this campaign promise. Simply put, there are too many hurdles between the federal government and regular Bitcoin purchases.

“It’s a low probability. While the Republicans control the Senate, they don’t have close to 60 seats. I think that it would be very smart for the United States to take the Bitcoin they have and maybe add some to it… I don’t necessarily think that the dollar needs anything to back it up,” Novogratz claimed.

To be clear, he also emphasized that such a Reserve would be beneficial for Bitcoin, predicting it would shoot the price to $500,000. However, Novogratz doesn’t think the existing support is enough.

Senator Cynthia Lummis got bipartisan support for her Bitcoin Reserve bill, and some state-level representatives also support the act. These vocal advocates, however, are few.

It’ll take more than a few elected officials to get such a sweeping policy over the finish line. For example, Novogratz also got into a recent social media spat with Senator Elizabeth Warren, the famed Bitcoin critic.

Although the anti-crypto faction in US legislature got substantially weaker in the last election, it isn’t defeated yet. Even Trump’s own party might not unite in support of the bill.

Polymarket odds, for their part, concur with Novogratz’s bearish predictions. This decentralized prediction market recently gained credibility after successfully forecasting Trump’s victory, and it claims the US Bitcoin Reserve only has a 33% chance of happening. Granted, the only active bet is whether Trump will fulfill his promise within the first 100 days, not his entire term.

Ultimately, there still is a decent chance that Trump will successfully pass a Bitcoin Reserve bill sometime in his four-year term. Lummis’ bill already has bipartisan support, and the US electorate is becoming more crypto-friendly.

Several Democrats may vote in favor, or the midterms could see new pro-crypto wins. Nonetheless, it might take a while.