Regulation

What’s Next for Federal Reserve Interest Rates?

Published

3 hours ago

January 11, 2025

The FOMC meeting date for January 2025 is fast approaching, and for the crypto community, the Federal Reserve interest rates decision is what is of utmost importance. However, recent developments suggest that the decision might not be favorable for the crypto market.

FOMC Meeting Date And What To Expect

The Federal Reserve’s calendar shows that January’s FOMC meeting date is set for 28th and 29th. The Fed will announce its interest rates decision at the end of this 2-day meeting.

The crypto community has its eyes on this Fed meeting to see whether the US Central Bank will continue with the quantitative easing (QE) policies that it adopted last year, having made three interest cuts in 2024.

At the December 2024 FOMC meeting, the Fed decided on a 25 basis points (Bps) rate cut, which was bullish for the crypto market. However, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech suggested that the committee was hawkish despite the rate cut decision.

Since then, the crypto community has been looking forward to the next FOMC meeting. There have been several developments that suggest what the Federal Reserve interest rates decision would be this month.

One is the December nonfarm payrolls data, which surged to 256,000. With this strong US job data, traders predict that the Fed will keep interest rates steady. CME FedWatch data shows there is a 93.6% probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged.

In fact, traders are now betting against a Fed rate cut in the first half of this year. Instead, they predict that there will be only one rate cut throughout the year, which will happen in October.

What It Means For Bitcoin And The Crypto Market

The Fed’s potential decision to keep rates unchanged at its next FOMC meeting is bearish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin flash crashed to as low as $92,000 following the release of the nonfarm payrolls data, which reduced the likelihood of a rate cut at the January Fed meeting.

Keeping rates unchanged plays out in the minds of investors who are likely to be more risk-averse. These investors are less likely to invest in risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

What To Watch Out For Before The Fed Meeting

Ahead of the January FOMC meeting, the PPI and CPI inflation figures are things to keep an eye on. The Producer Price Index data will come out on January 14, while the Consumer Price Index data will be released on January 15.

These inflation figures will undoubtedly influence the Federal Reserve interest rates decision at the January meeting. The PPI is expected to rise to 3.0 year-on-year (YoY). Meanwhile, the CPI is expected to rise to 2.8% year