Welcome to the US Morning Crypto Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee to see how Bitcoin is holding its ground while Wall Street stumbles, why Trump’s tariffs may push the Fed into money-printing mode, and what that could mean for crypto’s next chapter. From Ethereum’s test of resilience to rising odds of a US recession, here’s everything you need to know to stay ahead.
Bitcoin Enters Its Risk-Dynamic Era Amid Tariffs and Turmoil
Bitcoin’s reaction to recent macro shocks—particularly Trump’s sweeping tariffs—has been noticeably calm compared to traditional markets, and that’s turning heads. While Wall Street stumbles harder than expected, crypto has held relatively steady.
Nexo Dispatch Editor Stella Zlatarev told BeInCrypto that this isn’t just resilience—it’s evidence that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of market maturity.
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“A 2–3% drop in crypto is a rounding error compared to past cycles,” she said, emphasizing that this stability amid chaos suggests Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative punt. “Bitcoin’s ability to weather macro turbulence without the wild swings of previous years suggests institutional investors are treating it less as a speculative punt and more as a strategic asset,” Zlatarev said.
“It’s not gold, and it’s not the yen. Instead, Bitcoin is emerging as a risk-dynamic asset – one that doesn’t crumble like high-growth stocks but also doesn’t attract the same flight-to-safety flows as traditional safe havens,” Zlatarev told BeInCrypto.
This concept of a “risk-dynamic” asset positions Bitcoin in a unique role: something that thrives in uncertainty but doesn’t collapse when the market turns.
Zlatarev from Nexo also noted that how Ethereum and other blue-chip altcoins respond next will be key.
“If ETH mirrors BTC’s performance, it strengthens the case that top-tier crypto assets are evolving into a more predictable asset class. If ETH wobbles, it reinforces that, for now, Bitcoin is in a league of its own.”
Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is shifting fast. Trump’s new “Liberation Day” tariffs have spooked global trade partners and have also sent ripple effects through prediction markets. Polymarket now gives almost 50% odds of a US recession this year—a major shift following the announcement.
Also, CME FedWatch tool shows interest rate traders have boosted the probability the US Federal Reserve will make four rate cuts this year. Eventually, this could relief the current macroeconomic pressure on Bitcoin.
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Target Rate Probabilities for the Next Fed Meeting on May 7. Source: CME Group
Former BitMex CEO Arthur Hayes mentioned that Trump’s current tariff strategy could complicate the US bond market. In other words, pressure is building for the Fed to intervene—possibly by turning on the liquidity spigot once again.
Trump’s tariff formula is further evidence he is laser focused on reversing these imbalances. The problem for treasuries is that without $ exports foreigners can’t buy bonds. The Fed and banking system must step up to ensure a well functioning treasury mrkt, which means Brrrr. pic.twitter.com/doGPAaRfAl
All of this puts Bitcoin in a new spotlight. Its steadiness is no longer being dismissed as a coincidence. It may be the first sign that crypto, or at least its most mature players, is stepping out of the shadows of speculation and into the spotlight of strategic finance.
Chart of the Day
Balance of Payments: Current Account: Balance (Revenue Minus Expenditure) for the United States. Source: FRED St-Louis.
By reducing foreign demand for US Treasuries, Trump’s tariffs may force the Fed to inject more liquidity—potentially weakening the dollar and boosting Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.
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